Tuesday, January 31, 2006
National Foreclosures Up in 2005
(January 24, 2006) -- The U.S. residential foreclosure inventory saw gains in each quarter of 2005, according to a new report from RealtyTrac.
Between the first three months and the last three, the number of new foreclosures ramped up 25 percent—with a total of 846,982 homes entering some stage of the process last year. However, RealtyTrac CEO James J. Saccacio stresses that, although seemingly high, the number of properties entering foreclosure actually represents fewer than 1 percent of all American households.
The report identifies Florida as the state with the highest foreclosure rate. Its 121,843 reported foreclosures accounted for more than 14 percent of the nationwide total for 2005, according to RealtyTrac. Florida was followed in foreclosure activity, respectively, by Colorado, Utah, and Texas.
Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the 10 highest in the country included Indiana and Ohio. Among the states reporting the highest number of new foreclosures, meanwhile, were California, Illinois, New York, and Michigan.
"Over the past few years, we've seen historically low mortgage rates, consistently escalating home prices, and steady, strong employment," Saccacio notes. "This has translated into relatively low levels of foreclosure properties, particularly bank-owned properties. With interest rates rising and an apparent slowing of property valuations in most markets, we'll be watching closely to see if there's a material effect on the number of foreclosures in 2006."
Source: Inman News Features (01/23/06)
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Friday, January 27, 2006
Denver Skyline gets a new addition
55-story condo tower joins skyline-transforming rush
By Margaret Jackson
Denver Post Staff Writer
DenverPost.com
A Toronto company on Thursday announced plans to build a 55-story, 200-condominium residential tower in downtown Denver, adding to a frenzy of development proposals that could dramatically alter the city's skyline.
Great Gulf Group said it plans to spend about $165 million on the building east of Larimer Square at 14th and Lawrence streets, near Lower Downtown.
It would be among the city's tallest buildings.
The company on Wednesday purchased the 25,000-square-foot site from Denver-based Westfield Development Co. The sale price was not disclosed.
"I think it's the best location in Denver," said Gary Switzer, Great Gulf's executive vice president. "We're on the border of the central business district where the zoning changes in LoDo. It's the last opportunity to do a tall building and a very dense building without being restricted by the height limits of LoDo."
Some real estate skeptics doubt whether all of the proposed buildings will be built. But one competing developer praised the recent moves.
"I think it's good that we're finally starting to pull the residential base into the downtown core," said Michael Geller, who hopes to build a 31-story condo tower near 14th and Speer Boulevard. "The lack of a residential base is something that's been holding this downtown back. The more people we have downtown, the better chance we have of bringing better-quality retail. I strongly applaud any of those kinds of project that will start to bring people into downtown."
John Huggins, Denver's director of economic development, said he thought there's demand for at least the 1,000 or so downtown residential units now on the drawing board.
"Perhaps some of those proposed projects may change as they move to fruition, but I believe they all will be built in one form or another," he said.
Founded in 1975, Great Gulf developed a 36-story tower in Toronto, as well as a number of single-family subdivisions in Texas and Florida. Its Ashton Woods Homes subsidiary developed The Pinery, a 771-home development in Parker.
The company's proposed Denver tower is a few blocks from the Denver Center for the Performing Arts, across the street from a proposed Four Seasons hotel and condominium complex, and adjacent to the Larimer Square Historic District.
However, the site is not part of the historic district. Its zoning is consistent with the rest of downtown, so the project's height should not be an issue, said Julius Zsako, communications director of community and planning development for Denver.
The Four Seasons, proposed by Hotel Teatro developers Michael Brenneman and Jeff Selby, is expected to be about 50 stories tall and include 140 condominiums atop 20 floors of hotel rooms.
Asked about the plans for a competing residential tower across Arapahoe Street, Brenneman cautioned that Great Gulf needs to be sensitive "when you're backing up to Larimer Square. That's truly one of our gems. It's a very old brick block, and it needs delicate handling."
Also in the works
Other downtown projects announced recently:
A 41-story tower near the Colorado Convention Center from Clayton Lane developer Randy Nichols.
An age-restricted condo tower near the convention center by developer Charlie Woolley.
Osborn Development's 31-story One Lincoln Park.
Geller's 31-story condo tower.
Geller's site was part of a land swap in which Mayor John Hickenlooper's administration gave up the land in exchange for property it needed for the justice complex.
Geller has been seeking a boundary change that would put his property out of the historic district and allow the tower.
Councilwoman Judy Montero has convened a group of stakeholders to work with Geller on plans for the site.
"The tower is still being talked about, but we're also talking about what it would look like if he developed it within the historic district," said Kim Kucera, a Montero aide.
Geller said he also is considering several 55- to 85-foot shorter buildings interspersed over the site.
Units in Great Gulf's tower, designed by Peter Clewes of Toronto-based architectsAlliance, are expected to range from 1,200 to 7,000 square feet, with prices starting around $550,000. The building's amenities will include a doorkeeper, concierge, valet parking and on-site recreational director.
"I think there's a really strong market for those units from people who are living downtown in dated high-rises and on Cheesman Park," said Dee Chirafisi, broker/owner with Kentwood City Properties who is marketing the project for Great Gulf. "Fourteenth and Lawrence has the advantage of location. People who are looking for the high-rise lifestyle generally want to be right in the middle of everything."
"Working on a hunch"
The Denver project is somewhat of a gamble for Great Gulf, which is betting on people selling large houses to relocate downtown.
"We're working on a hunch because of what we've seen in other cities," Switzer said. "They really want to be downtown and close to shopping and have walkability. They don't want to get in their cars."
Whether all the projects will be built is a great debate in real-estate circles.
When plans for another of the proposed towers came to light in December, an official from the Downtown Denver Partnership said then that the flurry of proposed high rises was a testament to the demand for housing but warned not all could be built.
"The feasibility of all of them coming to fruition depends on the assemblage of land, financing options and all the different pieces that have to come together for development. That will probably weed some of them out," said Kate Peterson, housing program manager for the Downtown Denver Partnership.
Staff writer Margaret Jackson can be reached at 303-820-1473 or mjackson@denverpost.com.
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Monday, January 23, 2006
Mile High Bankruptcies and Foreclosures
Rocky Mountain News
Sometimes less is best in forecast for economy
January 21, 2006
Rob Reuteman
I do a fair amount of homework each January prior to speaking at the annual Vectra Bank Colorado Economic Forecast Breakfast, which was Thursday. I go over much of our economic coverage for the past year, condense it and regurgitate it. Some of it is worth sharing, such as:
There is reason to be optimistic about Colorado's two worst economic indicators - bankruptcies and foreclosures. In 2003, we led the nation for the rate of increase in bankruptcies. In 2004, we were second, behind New York, with almost 28,000. Last year there were nearly 48,000 bankruptcy filings in Colorado as of late December, a 54 percent increase over the previous year. The final tally for the year is not out yet.
What's good about that? The new federal bankruptcy law went into effect in mid-October. For the first time, it forces people who file to pay back their creditors to some extent. Many people wanted to file before the law went into effect. On Oct. 15, the last filing date before the federal law took effect the following Monday, 3,400 people filed in Denver's bankruptcy court. There were lines around the block, and we ran pictures of them. For the entire month of November, only 130 people filed. In December, the tally appears to be fewer than 400, and that's good news.
With foreclosures, the emerging picture is similar: It's still bad, but the rate at which it's getting worse is slowing down. Last year, there were 14,400 home foreclosures in Colorado. That's the second-worst year ever here and ranks us fifth in the nation. The worst year for foreclosures is still 1988 - more than 17,000 Coloradans lost their homes as the savings and loan industry collapsed.
The silver lining? In 2002, foreclosures posted a 55 percent increase over '01. In 2003, they posted a 44 percent increase over '02. In '04, the increase over 2003 was 31 percent. See the trend here?
Last year's 14,000-plus foreclosures were only 16 percent more than 2004, nearly half the rate of increase from the year before. Patty Silverstein, president of Development Research Partners and another speaker at the Vectra Bank breakfast, predicts 15,000 home foreclosures this year, a 7.1 percent increase over last year. We appear to be getting there, folks.
Speaking of residential real estate, in a better light: The median price of a Denver-area home rose 4.4 percent last year, to $246,600. The appreciation rate in Denver has stayed within a 4 percent to 6 percent range since 2002. That's a far cry from the 15 percent annual appreciation local homeowners enjoyed in 1999 and 2000. But rate of appreciation means we don't need to worry about any real estate bubble bursting here. Look at Phoenix, which Silverstein said had a 55 percent rate of appreciation last year. That cannot sustain itself. She rattled off slightly smaller rates for Tucson, Las Vegas, San Diego and several cities in Florida. Those folks ought to worry. We don't need to. The National Association of Realtors forecasts a 7 percent rate of appreciation for homes along the Front Range for the next two years. A bit worrisome is the current resale inventory in Denver of about 23,600 houses, up 13 percent from 21,000 at the end of 2004. Houses stayed on the market an average of 90 days last year, only five days more than the year before.
The third breakfast speaker was Jeff Thredgold, Vectra Bank's chief economist and a wonderfully entertaining and opinionated speaker - for an economist. A few of his musings are worth passing along:
• The Dow will hit 12,000 this year. It finished down 213.32 to close at 10,667.39 on Friday. Thredgold credits "the quality of U.S. companies, which have gone from downsizing to right-sizing. The growth in corporate earnings has been incredible in the past three years."
He also cites baby boomers. "We've all read about how the 74 million-strong generation is beginning to retire, with one reaching the age of 60 every eight seconds," he said. "They have not saved aggressively for retirement. In the next few years they will begin playing catchup to get to where they need to be."
His final reason: "Fear and greed are still the two main motivating factors for investors. After the stock market tanked five years ago, the aggressive money went into real estate. As the real estate market cools because of rising interest rates and the threat of a bursting bubble, the money will move back into the stock market."
• Energy prices will stabilize over the next few years, Thredgold thinks, with oil settling in somewhere between $48 and $52 a barrel. "It may hit $80 a barrel before we get there, but that's where it will end up," he said. "The Saudis don't want businesses and consumers switching to hybrids or clean-coal technology. The Saudis don't want us to have that conversation."
Business editor Rob Reuteman can be reached at 303-892-5177 or reutemanr@RockyMountainNews.com.
Copyright 2006, Rocky Mountain News.
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Entries
04/03/2006: Staging a Home
03/11/2006: How Much are Closing Costs
02/10/2006: Looking for that vacation home? Maybe a group is better to help you buy
02/05/2006: I need a place to live. Does anyone have $20MM to lend me?
01/31/2006: National Foreclosures Up in 2005
01/27/2006: Denver Skyline gets a new addition
01/23/2006: Mile High Bankruptcies and Foreclosures
12/28/2005: Housing-bubble shield
12/28/2005: Used home sales reach record $14.9 billion
12/27/2005: Higher end houses inflation proof?
12/27/2005: Colorado Real Estate Bubble a myth?
12/19/2005: Real Estate Season is Almost Open
12/02/2005: Good time to invest in a rental property?
12/02/2005: Someone ran over my dogma with karma
11/28/2005: Home sales off from last November
11/28/2005: Mile High homes
11/28/2005: Homeowners look to refinancing mortgages
11/28/2005: Number of homes sold down, prices up
11/21/2005: Sales of new homes flat
11/17/2005: OPINION - Javad Heydary
11/16/2005: Home price growth lags
11/16/2005: The world’s worst mortgage
11/10/2005: Congress should ax public land giveaway
11/07/2005: Realtors up in arms about mortgage tax break change
11/07/2005: Bush considers abolishing mortgage tax break! Not good for owners.
11/02/2005: Woman sells house with added bonus... a wife!
10/24/2005: Just some news on the Denver Real Estate front - priced below market?
10/11/2005: Denver or the mountains, a good investment in Colorado
10/10/2005:
09/15/2005: FEMA starts to allow groups in to start rescuing animals
09/01/2005: Would you bet on Median Home prices
08/30/2005: RE/MAX plans to post all U.S. listings online
08/29/2005: Denver Real Estate Market News
08/26/2005: Denver Median Home Price Sets Record
08/25/2005: Denver Real Estate
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